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Оплечье одинокого покорителя - Предмет

Комментарий от fraeda

I was rather hoping that they would mix up the classes for each of these tokens in Cata. As a mage, I am rather tired of competing with 3 other classes for my gear... Druids, Rogues, DKs, you all feel the pain...

Комментарий от OnyxBlack

This item will drop from "Cho'gall" in "The Bastion of Twilight"

Link to Cho'gall : Чо'ГаллLink to The Bastion of Twilight : Сумеречный бастион

Edit:It will be a medium drop rate 25%-50%

Can't wait till I get it... Tier 11 druid set looks so awesome!

Комментарий от Cyrus82

With two of those classes being hybrids, it could be even more than 6. :/

The most tokens a person can possibly need is one per slot per role. Even that is unrealistic, because what raid would ever possibly let a druid who's mainly a healer roll on a token for their cat AND bear sets before letting a mage roll on their first token? It's more likely these days that hybrid classes are only collecting one PvE set (and they're using the dual spec for PvP, or for minmaxing for specific encounters) than it is likely that they're actively collecting three. It just wouldn't happen. For that matter, who would bother trying to collect all sets for progression content? Nostalgia or RP sets here and there, sure, but the latest set for every role? It's fiction. But, fine, let's assume that people are ultimately trying to get one class set for every role. That means every druid is rolling on four of these for tanking, healing, melee dps and ranged dps, every DK is rolling on two for tanking and dpsing, and a mage and rogue each want one. Now look at the other two tokens with the same reasoning, conqueror and protector. Paladins want three sets of conqueror tokens, priests want two and warlocks want one. For the protector tokens, shamans want three sets, warriors want two and hunters want one.

So that's eight roles that can use the vanquisher tokens, six that can use the conqueror tokens and six that can use the protector tokens. 8:6:6 equals 4:3:3, same as the drop rates and the numbers of classes. Even in the absolute worst-case scenario, the competition is exactly the same for all these. And the absolute worst-case scenario is unlikely (because, again, no one is collecting the set that they don't have a spec to match, certainly not before pure dps classes are getting any loot at all), so the classes competing for vanquisher tokens are actually BETTER OFF than the other six classes.

All of that, of course, is about averages over the course of all 10 million players. If your raid happens to have two rogues, two DKs, two mages, two druids, and one paladin and one shaman, then yeah, there will be more competition for this token than for the others. However, that's an issue of raid makeup, it has nothing to do with which classes share tokens.

Комментарий от whoserman

my guild has 11 cho gall kill in 25 and only 1 time has it drop 1 T11 token for rogue,mage,druid,dk and the sey it 53%drop other guildi know have seim low drop of it soo i ting 53% is soo over rated like the trinkeld from patch work was 24% what was bigest drop % ,and it it drop only 2 times for all 30 time i was there realy i ting

Комментарий от Talishunda

Could have 4 druids all playing different roles.

TankMelee DPSRange DPSHealer

Комментарий от Nerdjitsu

Funny thing, statistics. You get bombarded into submission with numbers & abstract concepts, until you stop challenging the status quo for fear of appearing stupid. The reality is, there is a reason why some of this just doesn't make intuitive sense - because it doesn't make common sense.

Statistics will tell you things like: if you flip a coin 100 times, every single time there is a 50/50 chance of either heads or tails. Well, that is technically correct. But common sense will tell you, it would be practically impossible to flip heads 100 times in a row, regardless of the 50/50 stat. So when you're on your 25th attempt at Cho'gall, your common sense tells you it should have dropped by now, regardless of the fact you have a 53% chance each time you walk in the door.

Well, you may say, facts & numbers outweigh what people like to call "common sense". So then, let me use facts & numbers to show why what seems to be common sense is in fact actually correct:

We can all agree, a single coin flip has a 50/50 chance of landing either heads or tails, yes? No problem there. Now, statisticians will tell you, the next flip also has a 50/50 chance, regardless of the outcome of the first flip. They will say nothing from the first flip directly affects the outcome of the second flip; they are completely independent, and therefore both 50/50. And there is where the trouble starts. Why?

Because the correct statistic isn't being addressed: what we should be looking at is not the odds of heads or tails on the next flip alone, but rather, the odds of two or more independent flips resulting in the same outcome. So, for the next flip, we are not concerned with the native 50/50 odds, but rather the odds of getting the same results as the first flip. Remember, what the OP was complaining about was not that it didn't drop on the particular run that he wanted it too, but that there were so many misses overall.

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHTHHHHHHHHTTHHHHHHHTTTHHHHHHTTTTHHHHHTTTTTHHHHTTTTTTHHHTTTTTTTHHTTTTTTTTHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Flipping a coin 10 times is going to produce results that match one of these rows. (This is not necessarily in the order flipped, ie: line 6 could have actually been rolled as HTHTHTHTHT or any other combination of 5 H 's and 5 T's.) As you can see, the odds of flipping all heads or all tails is only 18%. The odds of getting 9 heads and 1 tails is 9%. So now, what are the odds of going to Cho'gall 25 times and only getting 1 drop? Rounding to a 50% drop rate for simplicity's sake & using the same matrix style, you're looking at just under 4% odds (1 possible combination out of 26). So while it is statistically possible, he did indeed get screwed. And going 100 times and not seeing it once? You don't want to know...

Oh, and there's even one more thing decreasing the odds of this happening to even lower than 4%:

4% odds assumes that each possibility had an equal likelihood of occurring. In practice, however, combination ranges that have a narrower variance from 50/50, such as 40h/60t to 60h/40t, stand a higher chance of being repeated. That is to say, while rare combinations might possibly occur once, common combinations may repeat several times before a rare one occurs.

tl;dr

Just think of it this way: when you flip a coin for the hundredth time, the odds of that individual flip being heads is indeed 50/50. But the odds that you had just got done flipping 99 heads is infinitesimally small.

Комментарий от Emmerald

As you can see, the odds of flipping all heads or all tails is only 18%. The odds of getting 9 heads and 1 tails is 9%. So now, what are the odds of going to Cho'gall 25 times and only getting 1 drop? Rounding to a 50% drop rate for simplicity's sake & using the same matrix style, you're looking at just under 4% odds (1 possible combination out of 26). So while it is statistically possible, he did indeed get screwed. And going 100 times and not seeing it once? You don't want to know...

Your explanation went fine, up until this point. The probability of each of those combinations (and therefore the number of possible combinations in which each total can be achieved) is not equal. The probability of getting no heads (in ten rolls) is (0.5 to the power of 10) = 1 in 1024 = roughly 0.1%. The chance of getting 5 heads and 5 tails (in any order) is about 24.6%. That's binomial distribution in practice (I just simplified the formula as there is only one possible combination for all heads). I'll skip the rest of the math here, it's better explained behind that link. Given that all these discussions share the binomial nature, they all follow the same logic.

So to get only 1 token in 11 kills, that's pretty bad luck. Sorry pal.

Комментарий от GravenTerenas

This just dropped for me from Al' Akir in Throne of the Four Winds 10N. Just thought I'd mention that, since it says here it only drops from Cho' gall.

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